Forecasting of local tax realization with least square method in Tanggamus Regency

https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v5i1.1299
Published: Jun 13, 2023

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aims to identify the contribution of local taxes to regional revenues in Tanggamus Regency and predict the pattern of realization of regional tax revenues in the coming period.

Research methodology: This research is a quantitative study with a time series trend analysis according to the type of regional tax and an overview of the target and its realization. The sample used in this study was data from seven types of regional taxes obtained from the Regional Financial Management Agency of Tanggamus Regency. The data analysis process uses the least squares method, often used to forecast, and the application uses Minitab software with fitted line plots and descriptive statistics features.

Results: This study's results showed that the seven tax subjects seemed to go through changes and tended to grow in the future.

Limitations: This research is limited to the specific scope of taxes selected and does not cover all other types of taxes and levies.

Contributions: This study's ability to predict the future helps make plans for regional tax revenue, especially when it comes to planning for policies that might change in the near future.

Novelty: This research is new because it has a new update on how to use predictive methods with Minitab and an analysis of how local taxes have changed over time.

Keywords:
1. Local Tax
2. Least Square
3. Regional Governments
4. Forecasting
Authors:
1 . Alvindra Alvindra
University of Lampung, Lampung, Indonesia
2 . Simon Sumanjoyo Hutagalung
University of Lampung, Lampung, Indonesia
3 . Bambang Utoyo Sutiyoso
University of Lampung, Lampung, Indonesia
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How to Cite
Alvindra, A., Hutagalung, S. S., & Sutiyoso, B. U. (2023). Forecasting of local tax realization with least square method in Tanggamus Regency. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 5(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v5i1.1299
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Issue & Section
Vol. 5 No. 1 (2023): June
Articles
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References

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  2. Agarwal, A. (2021). Study of machine learning algorithms for potential stock trading strategy frameworks. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 3(3), 275–287. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v3i3.604
  3. Akbar, L. R. (2020). ANALISIS KINERJA DIREKTORAT JENDRAL PAJAK DALAM OPTIMALISASI PENERIMAAN PAJAK DI ERA-PANDEMI COVID 19. JABE (Journal of Applied Business and Economic), 7(1), 98–110. https://doi.org/10.30998/jabe.v7i1.7787
  4. Akers, M. D. (2018). Exploring, Analysing and Interpeting Data with Minitab 18: First Edition. Compass Publishing.
  5. Ali, M., & Asrori, M. (2022). Metodologi dan Aplikasi Riset Pendidikan. Bumi Aksara.
  6. Anasta, L., & Nengsih, N. (2019). Peranan Pajak Daerah dan Retribusi Daerah terhadap Peningkatan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (pada Kabupaten dan Kota di Jawa Barat). Profita: Komunikasi Ilmiah Dan Perpajakan, 12(1), 50–55. https://doi.org/10.22441/profita.2019.v12.01.004
  7. Aryadi, F., Ahadiat, A., & Ribhan, R. (2020). Financial performance of Bandar Lampung City Government (Comparing the accountability of two mayor periods: 2006 – 2010 vs 2011 – 2015). International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(3), 213–225. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i3.232
  8. Asih, S. (2018). Pengaruh Kontribusi Pajak Daerah, Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Retribusi Daerah dan Bagi Hasil Pajak Terhadap Belanja Daerah Dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sebagai Variabel Moderating Pemerintah Kabupaten dan Kota. Jurnal Akuntansi Bisnis Dan Publik, 9(1), 177–191.
  9. Blackburn, T. D. (2022). The Analyze Phase with Minitab Tools. In T. D. Blackburn (Ed.), Six Sigma: A Case Study Approach Using Minitab® (pp. 107–201). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96213-5_5
  10. BPKD Tanggamus. (2021). RUMAH INFORMASI BIDANG ANGGARAN – BPKD – TANGGAMUS. Retrieved 13 December 2022, from http://bpkd.tanggamus.go.id/rumah-informasi-bidang-anggaran/
  11. BPS Tanggamus. (2022, February 25). Kabupaten Tanggamus Dalam Angka Tahun 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022, from https://tanggamuskab.bps.go.id/publication/2022/02/25/a75a526f922e5f6eab4d3cfa/kabupaten-tanggamus-dalam-angka-2022.html
  12. Chigora, F., Kapesa, T., & Svongoro, P. (2021). Revisiting nation branding: An infrastructure financing perspective in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 3(2), 179–192. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v3i2.611
  13. Cui, W. (2019). The Digital Services Tax: A Conceptual Defense. Tax Law Review, 73, 69.
  14. Dube, P. P. (2022). Some comments on total factor productivity and its growth in India. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 3(4), 301–315. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v3i4.704
  15. Eton, M., Mwosi, F., & Ogwel, B. P. (2022). Are internal controls important in financial accountability? (Evidence from Lira District Local Government, Uganda). International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 3(4), 359–372. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v3i4.810
  16. Fakhroni, Z., & Fitraratri, L. L. I. N. (2022). Tax Compliance Reporting: Antecedent and Moderating Effect. Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 2(3), 92–106. https://doi.org/10.47747/jat.v2i3.895
  17. Hafandi, Y., & Romandhon, R. (2020). Pengaruh Pajak Daerah, Hasil Pengelolaan Kekayaan Daerah yang Dipisahkan, Retribusi Daerah, dan Lain—Lain Pendapatan Daerah yang Sah Terhadap Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten Wonosobo. Journal of Economic, Management, Accounting and Technology, 3(2), 182–191. https://doi.org/10.32500/jematech.v3i2.1337
  18. Hájek, M., Zimmermannová, J., Helman, K., & Rozenský, L. (2019). Analysis of carbon tax efficiency in energy industries of selected EU countries. Energy Policy, 134, 110955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110955
  19. Hartanto, S. (2020). Addressing the tax challenges of e-commerce transactions. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(1), 29–39. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i1.162
  20. Hasanah, F. Y., & Sabar, W. (2021). Contribution of Local Tax and Retribution to Local Own-source Revenue in East Luwu Regency. Bulletin of Economic Studies (BEST), 1(3). https://doi.org/10.24252/best.v1i3.26000
  21. Herlina, D., & Romadhona, A. (2021). Price analysis between commodity groups of inflation in Banten province from 2008 to 2018. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(4), 321–341. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i4.447
  22. Hernimawati, H., & Sufi, W. (2020). The Implementation of Market Service Retribution Policy of Trade and Industry Department of Pekanbaru. Jurnal Niara, 12(2), 13–25. https://doi.org/10.31849/niara.v12i2.3193
  23. Ioana-Florina, C., & Mare, C. (2021). The Utility of Neural Model in Predicting Tax Avoidance Behavior. In I. Czarnowski, R. J. Howlett, & L. C. Jain (Eds.), Intelligent Decision Technologies (pp. 71–81). Singapore: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2765-1_6
  24. Iqbal, M., & Sunardika, W. (2018). PENGARUH PENERIMAAN PAJAK DAERAH DAN RETRIBUSI DAERAH TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH KABUPATEN BANDUNG (Studi Kasus Pada Badan Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten Bandung Periode 2009 – 2015). AKURAT | Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi FE UNIBBA, 9(1), 10–35.
  25. Iryanie, P. A. W. dan E. (2018). Pajak Daerah dalam Pendapatan Asli Daerah. Deepublish.
  26. Ismail, T. (2018). Potret Pajak Daerah di Indonesia. Kencana.
  27. Juliarini, A. (2018). KINERJA PENDAPATAN DAERAH TERHADAP PENINGKATAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA. Simposium Nasional Keuangan Negara, 1(1), 934–957.
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  30. Lyon, E., & Catlin, J. R. (2020). Consumer Misconceptions about Tax Laws: Results from a Survey in the United States. Journal of Consumer Policy, 43(4), 807–828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10603-020-09460-2
  31. Mawandhi, H. (2022, April 4). Advertorial: Dewi Handajani Sampaikan LKPJ Bupati Tanggamus Tahun 2021. Retrieved 24 August 2022, from Jejamo.com website: http://www.jejamo.com/advertorial-dewi-handajani-sampaikan-lkpj-bupati-tanggamus-tahun-2021.html
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  33. Owusu, E., Akomeah, C. B., & Duah, F. (2021). Demographic differences in sources of stress in higher educational institutions in Ghana. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 3(1), 27–44. https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v3i1.476
  34. Rahman, Y. A., Setyadharma, A., & Wiratama, B. (2021). ICE-BEES 2020: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Economics, Business and Economic Education Science, ICE-BEES 2020, 22-23 July 2020, Semarang, Indonesia. European Alliance for Innovation.
  35. Rostami, V., Ghamami, S. M. M., & Aslezaeim, A. (2021). An approach to the concept and nature of Taxes approved by local councils. The Judiciarys Law Journal, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.22106/jlj.2021.533488.4271
  36. Salim, R. R., Haliah, & Nirwana. (2022). LITERATURE REVIEW: ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN KINERJA KEUANGAN PEMERINTAH DAERAH DI INDONESIA ISEBELUM DAN SAAT PANDEMI ICOVID-19. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan, 1(3), 475–483. https://doi.org/10.55606/jimak.v1i3.675
  37. Surya, A., Desmon, D., & Alie, M. (2019, November 19). Determinants of Factors Affecting The Performance of Employees. Presented at the The First International Conference On Islamic Development Studies 2019, ICIDS 2019, 10 September 2019, Bandar Lampung, Indonesia. Retrieved from https://eudl.eu/doi/10.4108/eai.10-9-2019.2289371
  38. Wibowo, E. A. (2022). Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Desentralisasi Fiskal terhadap Penurunan Tingkat Kemiskinan pada Kabupaten/Kota: Studi Kasus Indonesia pada 2010—2018 |. Bappenas Working Papers, 5(1). Retrieved from http://workingpapers.bappenas.go.id/index.php/bwp/article/view/117