What drives youths to vote?: An analysis of politico-behavioural constructs in Southwestern Nigeria

https://doi.org/10.35912/jshe.v5i4.3090
Published: Aug 19, 2025

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aims at investigating how partisan alignment, geopolitical affiliation, issue-based orientation, monetary inducement, and behavioural persuasion influence voting behaviour among Nigerian youth aged 18–35 in a transitional democracy context.

Methodology/approach: A descriptive survey design of correlational type was adopted, using a validated structured questionnaire (six sections; reliability range r = 0.85–0.91). A stratified sample of 1,500 registered youth voters was drawn across Ondo, Oyo, and Osun States. Data were analysed with SPSS version 25 using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression at a 0.05 significance level.

Results/findings: Positive significant relationships were found with partisan alignment (r = .206), geopolitical affiliation (r = .253), and behavioural persuasion (r = –.128). The composite model was significant (Adj. R² = .110). Only partisan alignment (? = .187), geopolitical affiliation (? = .256), and behavioural persuasion (? = –.081) were significant predictors.

Conclusion: Youth voting behaviour in Southwestern Nigeria is shaped predominantly by partisan alignment, geopolitical affiliation, and behavioural persuasion, with issue-based orientation and monetary inducement showing no significant direct effect. These findings highlight the enduring influence of identity and persuasion in transitional democracies, despite growing discourse on issue-based politics.

Limitations: The study was limited to Southwestern Nigeria and relied solely on quantitative self-reported data.

Contribution: Findings are useful for political science, youth studies, electoral education, and governance policy, offering insights for strategies to enhance democratic participation and electoral integrity in transitional democracies.

Keywords:
1. Nigeria Youths
2. Politico-Behavioural Constructs
3. Voting Behaviour
Authors:
Timilehin Olayinka Omoniyi
University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
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Omoniyi, T. O. (2025). What drives youths to vote?: An analysis of politico-behavioural constructs in Southwestern Nigeria. Journal of Social, Humanity, and Education, 5(4), 389–401. https://doi.org/10.35912/jshe.v5i4.3090
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Vol. 5 No. 4 (2025): August
Articles
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References

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  1. Bär, D., Pierri, F., De Francisci Morales, G., & Feuerriegel, S. (2024). Systematic Discrepancies in the Delivery of Political Ads on Facebook and Instagram. PNAS nexus, 3(7), 1-11. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae247
  2. Barati, M. (2023). Casual Social Media Use Among The Youth: Effects on Online and Offline Political Participation. JeDEM : eJournal of eDemocracy, 15(1), 1-21. doi:https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2312.10095
  3. Carvalho, B. P., Custódio, C., Geys, B., Mendes, D., & Peralta, S. (2023). Information, Perceptions, and Electoral Behaviour of Young Voters: A Randomised Controlled Experiment. Electoral Studies, 84, 1-13. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102625
  4. Danao, A. B., Enriquez, M. E., Montejo, K. B., Patricio, A., Sonido, M. W., & Ador, Z. (2025). Digital natives: A case study exploring the digital literacy gaps in a Rural High School. Journal of Social, Humanity, and Education, 5(2), 143-158. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/jshe.v5i2.2247
  5. Enamorado, T., & Kosterina, S. (2022). Surrounded and Threatened: How Neighborhood Composition Reduces Ethnic Voting Through Intimidation. Political Science Research and Methods, 10(1), 68-81. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.15
  6. Gherghina, S., & Volintiru, C. (2021). Political Parties and Clientelism in Transition Countries: Evidence From Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Acta Polit, 56, 677-693. doi:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-020-00151-x
  7. Gottlieb, J., & Larreguy, H. (2020). An Informational Theory of Electoral Targeting in Young Clientelistic Democracies: Evidence From Senegal. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 15(1), 73-104. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019018
  8. Hoffmann, L. K., & Patel, R. N. (2022). Vote-Selling Behaviour and Democratic Dissatisfaction in Nigeria. Retrieved from London, UK: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/vote-selling-behaviour-and-democratic-dissatisfaction-nigeria
  9. Holland, A. C., & Palmer-Rubin, B. (2015). Beyond the Machine: Clientelist Brokers and Interest Organizations in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies, 48(9), 1186-1223. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414015574883
  10. Isiaq, A. A., Adebiyi, O. M., & Bakare, A. R. (2018). Ethnicity and Election Outcomes in Nigeria. JournaL of african ELEctions, 17(1), 117-135. doi:https://doi.org/10.20940/jae/2018/v17i1a6
  11. Jensen, P. S., & Justesen, M. K. (2014). Poverty and Vote Buying: Survey-Based Evidence From Africa. Electoral Studies, 33, 220-232. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.020
  12. Keefer, P. (2007). Clientelism, Credibility, and The Policy Choices of Young Democracies. American journal of political science, 51(4), 804-821. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00282.x
  13. Kiess, J., & Portos, M. (2024). Eppur si Muove! Young People, Issue Salience and Volatility in Nine European Countries. Government and Opposition, 59(3), 696-717. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2022.49
  14. Kramon, E. J. (2013). Vote Buying and Accountability in Democratic Africa: University of California, Los Angeles.
  15. Larreguy, H., & Marshall, J. (2017). The Effect of Education on Civic and Political Engagement in Nonconsolidated Democracies: Evidence From Nigeria. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(3), 387-401. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00633
  16. Lindberg, S. I., Bue, M. C. L., & Sen, K. (2022). Clientelism, Corruption and the Rule of Law. World Development, 158. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105989
  17. Makinde, W. A., & Abati, M. O. (2024). Effects of Community Radio on Political Education in Ibadan Metropolis, Oyo State, Nigeria. Journal of Social, Humanity, and Education, 4(4), 219-229. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/jshe.v4i4.1843
  18. Mehrez, A. (2024). When Right is Left: Values and Voting Behavior in Tunisia. Political Behavior, 46(3), 1467-1489. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-023-09879-6
  19. Quintelier, E. (2015). Engaging Adolescents in Politics: The Longitudinal Effect Of Political Socialization Agents. Youth & Society, 47(1), 51-69. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118X13507295
  20. Rekker, R. (2022). Young trendsetters: How young voters fuel electoral volatility. Electoral Studies, 75, 1-13. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102425
  21. Resnick, D., & Casale, D. (2014). Young Populations in Young Democracies: Generational Voting Behaviour in Sub-Saharan Africa. Democratization, 21(6), 1172-1194. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.793673
  22. Stapleton, C. E., & Langehennig, S. R. (2024). Partisanship and Voting Behavior Reconsidered in the Age of Polarization. Electoral Studies, 88. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102752
  23. Stokes, S. C., Dunning, T., & Nazareno, M. (2013). Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics: Cambridge University Press.
  24. Ugli, M. A. U. (2025). Scientific-Theoretical Foundations of the Negative Impact of Social Networks on the Moral and Ethical Upbringing of Youth. Journal of Multidisciplinary Academic and Practice Studies, 3(3), 689-698. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/jomaps.v3i3.3259
  25. Zainurin, S., Wan Husin, W., Zainol, N., & Ismail, A. (2024). Peers Influence on Youth Political Behavior: A Systematic Review. International Journal of Social Science Research, 12(2), 182. doi:https://doi.org/10.5296/ijssr.v12i2.21437
  26. Zhuravskaya, E., Petrova, M., & Enikolopov, R. (2020). Political Effects of the Internet and Social Media. Annual review of economics, 12(1), 415-438. doi:https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081919-050239