The nexus between agricultural exports and food security in Zimbabwe

https://doi.org/10.35912/amor.v7i1.2630
Published: Aug 19, 2025

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between agricultural exports and food security in Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2023.

Research Methodology: A time-series analysis was conducted using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics. Diagnostic tests, such as ADF, multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation, were performed to ensure robustness.

Results: The findings revealed that agricultural exports had a positive and statistically significant effect on food security. A 1% increase in agricultural exports leads to a 0.007% increase in food security. Other variables, such as rainfall, capital expenditure, and consumption expenditure, positively influenced food security, whereas rural and urban population growth negatively impacted it.

Conclusions: Agricultural exports play a critical role in enhancing food security in Zimbabwe by generating foreign currency and promoting investment in the agricultural sector. However, demographic pressures and climate-related risks remain significant challenges.

Limitations: The study is limited by data availability, as annual data may overlook short-term changes. Additionally, some potentially influential variables were excluded because of data constraints.

Contribution: This study contributes empirical evidence to policy debates on balancing export-oriented agriculture with domestic food needs. It offers actionable insights for government ministries and institutions involved in agricultural planning, advocating greater support for capital investment, infrastructure, and farmer education to ensure sustainable food security outcomes.

Keywords:
1. Agricultural Exports
2. FAO
3. Food Security
4. GDP
5. Economic Structural Adjustment Programme FAO GDP RBZ
Authors:
1 . Talent Kondo
Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe
2 . Zachary Tambudzai
Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe
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How to Cite
Kondo, T., & Tambudzai, Z. (2025). The nexus between agricultural exports and food security in Zimbabwe. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 7(1), 17–30. https://doi.org/10.35912/amor.v7i1.2630
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Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): August
Articles
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

References

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    Kuwayama, Y., Thompson, A., Bernknopf, R., Zaitchik, B., & Vail, P. (2019). Estimating the Impact of Drought on Agriculture Using the Us Drought Monitor. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(1), 193-210. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay037

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    Malthus, T. R. (1986). An essay on the principle of population (1798). The Works of Thomas Robert Malthus, London, Pickering & Chatto Publishers, 55(1), 1-139. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909619868735

    Manyanga, M., Murendo, C., Pedzisa, T., Mutyasira, V., & Ndou, R. (2023). Resilience capacities and implications for food security in Zimbabwe. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 17(4), 298-312. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.333983

    Matandare, M. A. (2017). An Analysis of the Role of the Agriculture Sector: Case of Zimbabwe. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology, 3(8), 1255-1263.

    Mbow, C., C. Rosenzweig, Barioni, L. G., Benton, T. G., Herrero, M., Krishnapillai, M., . . . Xu, Y. (2019). Food security Supplementary Material (pp. 439–550). Cambridge, UK: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Mukoka, S. (2020). The Impact of Agricultural and Manufactural Raw Material Imports on the Government Expenditure: A Case Study of Zimbabwe Economy. International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 12(1), 141-150.

    Ngwenya, S., Lunga, W., & Van Eeden, E. S. (2022). Learning from Past and Current Food Security Efforts and Challenges in Zimbabwe: The years 1430–2020. Jàmbá-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 14(1), 1210. doi:https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v14i1.1210

    Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.

    Osabohien, R., Matthew, O., Gershon, O., Ogunbiyi, T., & Nwosu, E. (2019). Agriculture Development, Employment Generation and Poverty Reduction in West Africa. The Open Agriculture Journal, 13(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874331501913010082

    Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

    Restiatun, R., Bustami, B., & Andika, P. D. (2024). The Effect of Capital Expenditure, Agricultural Sector Contribution, and Education on the Poverty Rate. Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik, 9(4), 267-276.

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    Sadik, N. (1991). World Population Continues to Rise. The Futurist, 25(2), 9.

    Smith, J. S. (2019). International Trade Promotion Methods for Smes in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Economies. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 1(3), 131-145. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v1i2.108

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    Tiongco, M. M., & Francisco, K. A. (2011). Philippines: Food Security versus Agricultural Exports? Retrieved from

    Triadji, I., Busnetty, I., & Sihombing, P. (2024). Alternative Solution to Achieve Abnormal Returns on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 6(3), 347-359. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v6i3.2000

    Yeboah, S. A. (2020). Modelling Inflation-Interest Rate Nexus For Ghana. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(3), 227-241. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i3.257

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  2. Adenegan, K. O., Oladele, O. I., & Ekpo, M. N. (2004). Impact of Agricultural Export on Food Security in Nigeria.
  3. Ahmad, M. M., & Dahalan, J. (2020). Not Aid, But Trade-an Application of ARDL Bound Test for Pakistan Economy. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(1), 51-64. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i1.155
  4. Ahmed, I., & Medabesh, A. M. (2020). Role of Income Distribution and Consumption Expenditure in Agricultural Output: Case of Nigeria. International Journal of Social Economics, 47(8), 991-1001. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-02-2020-0122
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  13. Ciccone, A., & Ismailov, A. (2022). Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization. Economica, 89(354), 229-257. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12405
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  26. Kuwayama, Y., Thompson, A., Bernknopf, R., Zaitchik, B., & Vail, P. (2019). Estimating the Impact of Drought on Agriculture Using the Us Drought Monitor. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(1), 193-210. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay037
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  34. Ngwenya, S., Lunga, W., & Van Eeden, E. S. (2022). Learning from Past and Current Food Security Efforts and Challenges in Zimbabwe: The years 1430–2020. Jàmbá-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 14(1), 1210. doi:https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v14i1.1210
  35. Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.
  36. Osabohien, R., Matthew, O., Gershon, O., Ogunbiyi, T., & Nwosu, E. (2019). Agriculture Development, Employment Generation and Poverty Reduction in West Africa. The Open Agriculture Journal, 13(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874331501913010082
  37. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  38. Restiatun, R., Bustami, B., & Andika, P. D. (2024). The Effect of Capital Expenditure, Agricultural Sector Contribution, and Education on the Poverty Rate. Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik, 9(4), 267-276.
  39. Runganga, R., & Mhaka, S. (2021). Impact of Agricultural Production on Economic Growth in Zimbabwe. Retrieved from Munich, Germany: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106988/
  40. Sadik, N. (1991). World Population Continues to Rise. The Futurist, 25(2), 9.
  41. Smith, J. S. (2019). International Trade Promotion Methods for Smes in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Economies. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 1(3), 131-145. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v1i2.108
  42. Smith, T. A., & Gregory, C. A. (2023). Food Insecurity in the United States: Measurement, Economic Modeling, and Food Assistance Effectiveness. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 15(1), 279-303. doi:https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101422-090409
  43. Tawodzera, G., & Crush, J. (2016). The Return of Food: Poverty and Urban Food Security in Zimbabwe After the Crisis: Southern African Migration Programme.
  44. Tiongco, M. M., & Francisco, K. A. (2011). Philippines: Food Security versus Agricultural Exports? Retrieved from
  45. Triadji, I., Busnetty, I., & Sihombing, P. (2024). Alternative Solution to Achieve Abnormal Returns on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 6(3), 347-359. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v6i3.2000
  46. Yeboah, S. A. (2020). Modelling Inflation-Interest Rate Nexus For Ghana. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management, 2(3), 227-241. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/ijfam.v2i3.257